Analysis of My Rugby League Betting Tips
Especially in the NRL, rugby league betting tips become harder and harder each year. The salary cap has brought about a competition that is incredibly even and, especially in the early rounds, it seems almost impossible to follow the form of the competition. This page details my attempts to win money by betting on league - despite the abovementioned difficulties - and to learn from the results of my bets.
Summary Total invested (on all bets): $100 Details 22 March 2009 - NRL, Canberra Raiders versus Sydney Roosters $50 on Canberra to win by 13+ at $2.634 Result - Lost Analysis My first bet is the perfect example of how little form seems to mean in the early rounds of the NRL. On paper it was a very solid bet. As detailed in my betting diary, everything appeared to point towards a comfortable Canberra win, yet the result was a large Canberra loss. What can I learn fron this for future rugby league tips and bets? I think it just hammers home the need to find good value - given the unpredictable nature of the results, it is crucial to be getting decent odds so that when you do win it is a significant amount. Several weeks have passed and I have not yet identified another opportunity that looks good - and I'm proud that I haven't had a bet just for the sake of it. 12 April 2009 - NRL, Newcastle Knights versus New Zealand Warriors $20 on New Zealand to win at $2.159 Result - Lost (Newcastle won 24-22) Analysis I was surprised that New Zealand weren't the favourites leading into this game - Newcastle have been performing well, but the Warriors are one of the favourites to win the competition and I thought they would have been favourites today - hence when they were slight underdogs I decided to back them. They went down in a very close match that could have gone either way. Not a bad bet, even though it lost. 12 April 2009 - NRL, Manly Sea Eagles versus Wests Tigers $10 on Wests to win at $3.233 Result - Lost (Manly won 23-10) Analysis Manly, the defending premiers had not won any of their first four matches leading into this round. The tigers have been inconsistent - they've shown some flair in attack but have also conceded quite a lot of points. Given the unpredictable nature of the competition so far I thought that at $3.233 the tigers were good value. However, the Sea Eagles were in control for most of the game and won fairly easily. Details 18 April 2009 - NRL, St George Illawarra Dragons versus Newcastle Knights $10 on Newcastle to win by 13+ at $9.80 (before commission) Result - Lost (Newcastle 24 defeated St George 18) Analysis Newcastle's form has been good and I gave them a chance of causing an upset against St George. However, I got greedy and went for the big upset - they won but didn't get the 13+. Details 18 April 2009 - NRL, South Sydney Rabbitohs versus Manly Sea Eagles $10 on Souths to win by 13+ at $7.80 (before commission) Result - Lost (Manly 24 defeated Souths 8) Analysis Form suggested that Souths had a realistic chance to win this game and, again, I got greedy and decided to go for the 13+. However, Manly ended up wining comfortably.
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