Analysis of my Rugby Betting Tips
I've been excited about the prospect of betting on rugby this year, confident that my rugby betting tips would prove successful. The reason stemmed form a couple of bets I'd had towards the end of the previous season on rugby league and I was keen to try the same logic out on union. In each case there had been a team that had been strong favourites at the start of the match, but by halfway through the second half the scores were about level (for league fans - one was the Melbourne Storm against the New Zealand Warriors in the first week of the semi finals, the other was Australia against New Zealand in the final of the World Cup). I had observed in instances like this, the pre-game favourite was often still much shorter than the pre-game underdog despite there being only about 20 minutes to go and the two sides having been even for about an hour. So in both cases I took the generous odds about the underdog (reasoning that the real odds should be about 50/50) and happily saw them win. It seemed that when one side is heavily favoured to win, people aren't willing to accept the evidence before their eyes and still think that the pre-match favourite of all the rugby betting tipsters will find a way to win. It was with this success in mind that I had my first bet of the 2009 Super 14 Rugby Season... Summary Total invested (on all bets): $50 Details 6 March 2009 - Super 14, New South Wales versus Queensland $50 on Queensland at $2.33 Result - Lost Analysis As detailed in my betting diary Queensland were a point ahead, well into the second half. I had not been watching the game - had just flicked over during a break in play in the cricket - and saw that the situation was close to what I had been looking for with a favourite and an underdog being about equal with not much of the game remaining. But really, it was a silly bet - NSW had not been overwhelming favourites, just firm favourites; Queensland were not all that good value - only $2.33; but, most importantly I had not watched any of the game and was in effect betting blind. Justice was served on me with astonishing speed. I had just put the bet on over the phone with Betfair and, as always, was told there would be a 5 second delay. In the delay I glanced at the screen to see New South Wales take an intercept and run half the length of the field and score! The cheery tone of the Betfair operator confirming that the bet was all matched did not help my mood and I hung up the phone feeling rather stupid, and watched the remainder of the game (with New South Wales holding on to win) in a state of mild depression. Hopefully my subsequent rugby betting tips will not be so disappointing.
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