Cricket Bets Reviewed
This page reviews some actual cricket bets to see which ones won and lost, to see which were smart and which were regrettable. Summary Total invested (on all bets): $645 Details Test Series - South Africa versus Australia 1st Test Match, 26 March - 2 April 2009 $100 on Australia at $4.56 Result - Australia won Analysis A great start. Prior to this series Australia had been beaten 2-1 by South Africa in Australia, prompting the media and the public to decide the once-great Australian side was on the decline. The general expectation was that Australia, having lost at home, would find it even harder to beat South Africa in South Africa. However, as always, the key is to look purely at the facts before makeing a judgement. The facts were as follows: * South Africa had beaten Australia As a result, I thought that Australia, without being certainties, had a very good chance of doing well and $4.56 represented a good price. As it turned out, Australia dominated the match and I made the decision to have two smaller bets on the draw and on South Africa at generous odds. This gave me protection against whichever of the three outcomes eventuated, although with Australia eventually winning I slightly regretted these bets. 2nd Test Match 6-10 April 2009 $50 on Australia at $3.75 Result - Australia won Analysis This was a similar result to the first test. I thought Australia still represented good value, they ended up dominating the early stages of the match and I laid off on the other two outcomes and then slightly regretted doing so when Australia won. Third Test Match, 19-22 April 2009 $5 on Australia at $673 Result - South Africa won Analysis Even though I lost $5 on this match I was pleased with what I did, primarily because I resisted the temptation to back Australia at the start. After having won the first two matches Australia were much shorter - $2.95 and then when they won the toss and batted about $2.50. I decided that, although I thought Australia would win, $2.50 was just not good enough value and so I didn't back them. Right at the end Australia blew to the ridiculous price of nearly 700-1 and so I had $5 on them just in case they pulled off a minor miracle. They didn't, but they should never have been at these odds. 1st Twenty20 Match - South Africa versus Australia, 28 March 2009 $50 on Australia at $3.85 (before commission)
$30 on South Africa at $2.72 (before commission)
Result - South Africa won Analysis I was a bit unlucky here. I thought Australia, at $3.85, were a good price at the start of their run chase and so I backed them. They looked in control for most of the match and I took the chance to lay off on South Africa at $2.72. In the end Australia threw the game away to some extent, so I was pleased I had laid off and effectively got my money back. All in all, a fairly astute day. 2nd One Day International Match - South Africa versus Australia, 5 April 2009 $10 on Australia at $14.30 (before commission)
Result - South Africa won Analysis As I say in my betting diary, this was a stupid bet. Australia had started terribly and would have been good value at $50, not at $14.30. This bet violated all of the rules of this site and I deserved to lose on it and did. 3nd One Day International Match - South Africa versus Australia, 9 April 2009 $5 on Australia at $95.00
Result - South Africa won Analysis Even though it lost, I am pleased with this bet. Australia were 5 wickets down chasing a large total under lights and were always going to struggle to win. But they do bat down a long way and circket is a funny game so when I was able to get odds of $95 I thought it was appropriate to have a small bet. 5th One Day International Match - South Africa versus Australia, 17/18 April 2009 $200 on Australia at $1.62
$10 on South Africa at $32
Result - Australia won Analysis I actually rang Betfair with the intention of backing South Africa. They needed about 90 runs of 60 balls with 5 wickets in hand and had several batsmen left who could really smash the ball. However, I expected they would be $10 or more but was shocked to find they were much shorter. When I discovered Australia were at $1.62 I promptly had $200 on them - as I thought they were entitled to be much shorter. South Africa immediately lost 3 quick wickets and blew out to any old odds and I had a small bet on them to lay off. Australia prevailed and I made $114 - in the space of about 20 minutes. It all seems so easy when you win like this! Indian Premier League, Rajasthan Royals versus Bangalore Royal Challengers, 18/19 April 2009 $50 on Bangalore at $5.10 (before commission) Analysis This was a very satisfying bet. Bangalore had posted a total which is normally regarded as not good enough to win a game of twenty20 cricket. However, at night it is often hard to score and it made sense that Rajasthan would also struggle. I couldn't believe that odds of $5.10 were being offered on Bangalore. Rajhastan were entitled to be favourites, but not strong favourites. The only criticism I have of the bet is that I didn't have more than $50 on it - this was a clear case of good value and I should have capitalised even more than I did.
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